It is actually the highest raw vote tally achieved by a candidate below #1 in their group since before 1940.

In this system there were naturally many cases of candidates in the larger states polling well over Molan's 130K without being their party's highest listed candidates. Where does Fiona Patten’s tally in the 2018 Victorian state election rank, percentage wise, compared to some of the figures you’re quoting. The data provided in this table can be filtered by selecting the different state and territory buttons and/or by typing a keyword into the available text field. Derryn Hinch, Fraser Anning, Brian Burston and the Liberal Democrats senator, Duncan Spender, have all lost their Senate seats but One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts is still in with a chance in Queensland.

Greens senator Larissa Waters looks likely to win, while Roberts and Labor senator Chris Ketter are ahead for the final two senator positions. The Coalition will need to negotiate with minor parties in the Senate as it fails to gain a majority in the upper house, Sun 19 May 2019 08.58 BST Those who were not up for re-election but are already in the Senate include Australian Conservatives’ Cory Bernardi, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Centre Alliance.

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You can use the PayPal button below or, contacts of imported cases (3 OS 2 CS 1 IS), Predicted seat result for the 2018 Tasmanian state election based on aggregated polling. Also, bucking the party ticket tended to be a small state thing. Despite his credentials, Molan has persistently failed to gain secure positions on the Senate ticket, having contested separate preselections before the 2016 election in anticipation of both half-Senate and double dissolution elections, and respectively managing only the unwinnable fourth and seventh positions. The progressive quota is calculated by taking the number of formal votes counted so far, dividing it by the number of vacant Senate positions in the relevant state or territory +1, then plus 1. The highest I could find was 82,786 primaries (5.6%) for Horace Nock (NSW), the sole Country Party candidate at #3 on a mixed UAP/Country ticket in 1943. Misleading arguments about it are being weaponised by some of those who would like to see Molan appointed to the Sinodinos casual vacancy, but there is also a risk that amid all this appreciation of the scale of Molan's result could be lost. Senate candidates Help and notes The data provided in this table can be filtered by … That system was knocked on the head after Labor used its famous "Four A's" ticket (Amour, Armstrong, Arthur, Ashley) to scoop the donkey vote in NSW 1937, helping itself to all four seats by a narrow margin under the repeat-preferencing system then in use. Simple theme.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers. Prior to the election, the Coalition had 31 senators. The huge Molan vote in comparison to the BTL votes of others is being used to claim that Molan has an iron-clad grip on the right to a Senate vacancy. Subsequently he was placed in the "unwinnable" fourth position on the Coalition's Senate ticket in New South Wales, below Hollie Hughes , Andrew Bragg , and the Nationals' candidate Perin Davey . Senate voting rules introduced in 2016 but tested for the first time under a half Senate election successfully culled the ranks of the minor parties. How will Anthony Albanese go as Labor leader? ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE HOME OF HARE-CLARK. In all the years from 1940 onwards, there was never a case of a candidate below #1 on a ticket polling even 100,000 primaries. But the conservative senator failed to return to the Senate.

The provisional quota provides an indication of how many seats a Senate group will potentially win in each state and territory. The government would need to negotiation with minor party senators. Unofficial estimated tally based on official and media reports: Deaths after being cleared (other conditions) 2, All copyright. REMEMBERS BEING SEVEN YEARS OLD IN JOH'S QUEENSLAND AND THINKS THE COURIER-MAIL MIGHT HAVE BEEN A NEWSPAPER THEN. In the years up til the introduction of group ticket voting in 1984, I found only three further mainland state cases: Dame Nancy Buttfield (Lib, SA, 1964), Dame Dorothy Tangney (ALP, WA, 1967) and Ronald Maunsell who somehow escaped a knighthood for his efforts (NCP, Qld, 1980). There are 76 senate positions in parliament, 12 from each state and two each from the ACT and Northern Territory but only 40 positions were up for re-election.

Selecting 'national' will return all available data filtered only by the text currently in the keyword search field. Last modified on Mon 20 May 2019 01.07 BST. We don't know how any other candidate would have gone had they been supported by a BTL campaign on a similar scale, and to say that candidates who weren't trying to get BTL votes and didn't need BTL votes are less popular than Molan because they didn't get as many BTLs as him is simply silly. Not that this would have happened in this instance (the NSW Coalition ticket would have scored 5 DD quotas more or less exactly, meaning that Molan would not have been able to catch the fifth candidate from outside the top five), but if a NSW candidate can poll almost 0.4 DD quotas there is some hope there that someday a win will occur. Personally, although I do not like Molan, this case only strengthens by belief that a full implementation of Hare-Clark with Robson Rotation would strengthen democracy in the Senate and contrary to what some others think, would be workable even in larger states. After candidate orders became defined by parties, top-of-the-ticket major party candidates would invariably get more than 130,000 votes in the larger states. All this said, I think that getting nearly 3% below the line is an impressive score in a state as difficult to do it in as NSW. At this Senate election we have seen some candidates such as Garland and Pesec get more than half their group's vote in BTLs, but that was partly because of voter confusion about non-party boxes. After 1949, Tasmanian down-ticket candidates would often break 3%, but in the mainland states, this almost completely stopped. On the other hand, a voter who votes 1 below the line for the ticket leader and then continues down the party ticket in order may not be aiming to personally vote for that ticket leader, so much as to control (or even in some cases deliberately exhaust!) Between 1940-1949 down-ticket candidates exceeded 3% a total of fifteen times in the mainland states, while in Tasmania it was so common that in both 1943 and 1946 every single non-#1 candidate did it. This would mean neither Labor nor the Coalition will have an outright majority in the Senate, meaning both parties will require negotiations with minor parties to pass or block legislation. Molan established the personal campaign after his party bumped him down the ticket to the unwinnable fourth spot. To start with, Molan absolutely is not going to win and has never even looked remotely like being in contention during counting. Australia's Most Ratioed Political Tweets (frequently revised), Federal Newspoll Records Page (frequently revised), Field Guide To Opinion Pollsters (2019-22 edition - frequently revised), Why Better Prime Minister/Premier Scores Are Still Rubbish (April 2020), DIY Issues Polling Due Diligence (Jan 2020), Voting Patterns in Tas House Of Assembly (Dec 2019), How Can Polling Disclosure and Reporting Be Improved? © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. Labor could return enough senators to fill 26 Senate positions while the Greens are expected to retain its status quo of nine senators.

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